It was eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard query to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
